JP Landman
Political & Trend Analyst
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Budgets and tariffs - so where are we now
2025-06-05 967 views
Budget 3.0 was tabled on the same afternoon as the SA/US meeting in the White House. Both events have been widely covered; this note assesses where we are now on both.
Budget 3.0: a moment of decision
2025-05-14 885 views
During the Freedom Day weekend run-up, the Minister of Finance withdrew his proposal to increase the VAT rate. On Freedom Day — Sunday, 27 April — the Cape High Court also issued an order prohibiting the Minister from proceeding with the VAT hike.
Budgets and tariffs
2025-04-10 1115 views
The vote on the Fiscal Framework was 194 for and 182 against, thus a slim majority of only 12. However, 24 members of Parliament (MPs) did not vote. A lot of uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) members were absent, and some MPs who spoke against the Budget left the chamber before the vote.
South Africa’s water crisis and the reform agenda
2025-04-08 1201 views
South Africa, one of the 30 driest countries globally, faces a deepening water crisis, driven by erratic rainfall, over-allocated water resources (98% already committed), and consumption far above the global average. Without major interventions, the country faces a projected 17% water shortfall by 2030.
40 days that changed the world
2025-03-10 1786 views
It is now just more than 40 days since Donald Trump became president. In those 40 days he has changed the world order fundamentally – for the worse.
AMSA: the sound and fury of a partial closure
2025-01-29 1326 views
Returning from a very relaxing holiday in Namibia, we walked into a storm around the closure of the long steel business by ArcelorMittal South Africa (AMSA). The saga concerns more than just steel – it is about public policy issues on tariffs, import protection, localisation and industrialisation. It is worth unpacking a bit.
Investment - pulling it all together
2024-11-26 1164 views
Turning South Africa into 1 big construction site is the expressed ideal of ministers from the ANC and the DA. What is the state of play, and what are the prospects?
Some you win, some you lose
2024-10-22 1543 views
There is an old saying that there are weeks when nothing happens, and then there are days when weeks happen. The first 2 weeks of October were days when a lot happened in both policy and politics.
So far so good
2024-09-19 1401 views
Two and a half months into the Government of National Unity (GNU) and contrary to the expectations of many, it is holding firm. A major red line for some coalition parties – the BELA bill – was crossed when the president signed it. Despite the noise, no one left the GNU. From his side, the president didn’t force through the two most contentious parts of the bill, giving three months to find a compromise. And if that fails? The Constitutional Court will sort it out.
Elections - a historic shift to the middle
2024-06-21 2386 views
More than a year ago, in May 2023, I wrote a note arguing for a ‘grand coalition’ between the ANC and the DA. I framed it as a coalition of parties of the democratic centre who can agree on basic values and an approach to government.
Election update
2024-04-10 1796 views
It is now official: more than 50 parties will contest the national elections in May, compared to the 48 in 2019.
2024 Elections
2024-03-01 1647 views
The election date has been announced for 29 May and the Budget speech delivered. Now it is off to the races!
Once again electricity
2024-01-22 1675 views
Over the holiday period there were several important developments regarding the major issue facing the country, electricity. By far the most important was the release of the long-term electricity plan, the Integrated Resource Plan 2023 or IRP 23. This is a still a draft. After public comments, it will be gazetted to replace IRP 2019. Even as a draft, it is a wholly unsatisfactory document that lets the country down in a crucial area of development. We will discuss this below.
Thoughts after a visit to China
2023-11-14 1633 views
Through the good offices of the Inclusive Society Institute of South Africa, I recently had the privilege of doing a short study tour in China. Everybody paid their own expenses, but the Inclusive Society arranged the (very efficient) programme and interesting engagements. Obviously, China is a massive country and one study tour does not even scratch the surface. Nevertheless, I would like to share some personal observations.
Neither a one-day, nor a one-person job
2023-09-21 1923 views audio available
In 2021, two researchers published a paper on corruption in the US between 1865 and 1941, a period infamous for its corruption. They distilled four lessons from that period.
Coalitions - important shifts
2023-08-15 2285 views audio available
Three months ago, in May, I wrote about coalitions, the need to strengthen the middle ground in our politics, as well as a 'grand coalition' between the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA). Since then, three important developments have taken place.
Integrating economics and foreign policy
2023-06-30 1681 views audio available
‘The ignorance of geopolitical minds about economics is matched only by the economics profession’s ignorance about foreign policy.’ So says the author of a new biography of Zbigniew Brzezinski, Jimmy Carter’s national security adviser, in response to a question about his subject’s view of the international trading system. ‘Alas, like most foreign policy strategists, including Henry Kissinger, George Kennan, Madeleine Albright and so on, Zbig did not engage much with economics.’
Coalitions
2023-05-22 1800 views audio available
Since the 2021 local government elections, several municipalities have been governed by coalitions. It has not been a happy experience. Johannesburg recently had its eighth mayor elected in eight years. In Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay power has been bouncing around between the major parties like ping-pong balls.
Electricity distribution: A glimpse of what the future could be.
2023-03-31 3365 views audio available
My sense is that South Africans are utterly exhausted. So, to give readers a break, this month I am sharing something very different. A real-life story from the ground up. A former Eskom engineer, his wife and two engineering sons (the Bosch family) have developed a practical example of how electricity distribution in South Africa will change over the next few years.
Electricity and load shedding
2023-01-23 4142 views audio available
Antonio Gramsci had it right: ‘The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear.’ Gramsci was referring to politics in Italy in the 1930s, but the quote also describes Eskom and load-shedding in South Africa in the 2020s. Load-shedding brings with it the morbid destruction of many small businesses and the merciless disruption of peoples’ lives. Eskom is dying and cannot be saved in its current condition. Electricity provision, however, is not dying. It is important to distinguish between those two, lest we are overwhelmed by morbid symptoms.