JP Landman
Political & Trend Analyst
Politics
South Africa’s water crisis and the reform agenda
2025-04-08 1033 views
South Africa, one of the 30 driest countries globally, faces a deepening water crisis, driven by erratic rainfall, over-allocated water resources (98% already committed), and consumption far above the global average. Without major interventions, the country faces a projected 17% water shortfall by 2030.
40 days that changed the world
2025-03-10 1740 views
It is now just more than 40 days since Donald Trump became president. In those 40 days he has changed the world order fundamentally – for the worse.
Investment - pulling it all together
2024-11-26 1135 views
Turning South Africa into 1 big construction site is the expressed ideal of ministers from the ANC and the DA. What is the state of play, and what are the prospects?
Some you win, some you lose
2024-10-22 1524 views
There is an old saying that there are weeks when nothing happens, and then there are days when weeks happen. The first 2 weeks of October were days when a lot happened in both policy and politics.
So far so good
2024-09-19 1385 views
Two and a half months into the Government of National Unity (GNU) and contrary to the expectations of many, it is holding firm. A major red line for some coalition parties – the BELA bill – was crossed when the president signed it. Despite the noise, no one left the GNU. From his side, the president didn’t force through the two most contentious parts of the bill, giving three months to find a compromise. And if that fails? The Constitutional Court will sort it out.
Elections - a historic shift to the middle
2024-06-21 2366 views
More than a year ago, in May 2023, I wrote a note arguing for a ‘grand coalition’ between the ANC and the DA. I framed it as a coalition of parties of the democratic centre who can agree on basic values and an approach to government.
Election update
2024-04-10 1779 views
It is now official: more than 50 parties will contest the national elections in May, compared to the 48 in 2019.
2024 Elections
2024-03-01 1633 views
The election date has been announced for 29 May and the Budget speech delivered. Now it is off to the races!
Once again electricity
2024-01-22 1653 views
Over the holiday period there were several important developments regarding the major issue facing the country, electricity. By far the most important was the release of the long-term electricity plan, the Integrated Resource Plan 2023 or IRP 23. This is a still a draft. After public comments, it will be gazetted to replace IRP 2019. Even as a draft, it is a wholly unsatisfactory document that lets the country down in a crucial area of development. We will discuss this below.
Thoughts after a visit to China
2023-11-14 1621 views
Through the good offices of the Inclusive Society Institute of South Africa, I recently had the privilege of doing a short study tour in China. Everybody paid their own expenses, but the Inclusive Society arranged the (very efficient) programme and interesting engagements. Obviously, China is a massive country and one study tour does not even scratch the surface. Nevertheless, I would like to share some personal observations.
Neither a one-day, nor a one-person job
2023-09-21 409 views audio available
In 2021, two researchers published a paper on corruption in the US between 1865 and 1941, a period infamous for its corruption. They distilled four lessons from that period.
Coalitions - important shifts
2023-08-15 2273 views audio available
Three months ago, in May, I wrote about coalitions, the need to strengthen the middle ground in our politics, as well as a 'grand coalition' between the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA). Since then, three important developments have taken place.
Integrating economics and foreign policy
2023-06-30 1661 views audio available
‘The ignorance of geopolitical minds about economics is matched only by the economics profession’s ignorance about foreign policy.’ So says the author of a new biography of Zbigniew Brzezinski, Jimmy Carter’s national security adviser, in response to a question about his subject’s view of the international trading system. ‘Alas, like most foreign policy strategists, including Henry Kissinger, George Kennan, Madeleine Albright and so on, Zbig did not engage much with economics.’
Coalitions
2023-05-22 1785 views audio available
Since the 2021 local government elections, several municipalities have been governed by coalitions. It has not been a happy experience. Johannesburg recently had its eighth mayor elected in eight years. In Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay power has been bouncing around between the major parties like ping-pong balls.
Electricity distribution: A glimpse of what the future could be.
2023-03-31 3346 views audio available
My sense is that South Africans are utterly exhausted. So, to give readers a break, this month I am sharing something very different. A real-life story from the ground up. A former Eskom engineer, his wife and two engineering sons (the Bosch family) have developed a practical example of how electricity distribution in South Africa will change over the next few years.
Electricity and load shedding
2023-01-23 4127 views audio available
Antonio Gramsci had it right: ‘The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear.’ Gramsci was referring to politics in Italy in the 1930s, but the quote also describes Eskom and load-shedding in South Africa in the 2020s. Load-shedding brings with it the morbid destruction of many small businesses and the merciless disruption of peoples’ lives. Eskom is dying and cannot be saved in its current condition. Electricity provision, however, is not dying. It is important to distinguish between those two, lest we are overwhelmed by morbid symptoms.
COP27 and South Africa
2022-11-25 1668 views audio available
Now that COP27 in Egypt is over we can look at how it affects South Africa. COP – or the Convention of the Parties – is the annual climate change conference held under the auspices of the United Nations. South Africa has been a participant since COP 1 in 1993. In 2011 the country hosted COP 17 in Durban. SA also hosted the World Sustainability Summit in Johannesburg. The country has a long political commitment to the climate change process.
Zondo - Some results are already in
2022-07-01 2403 views audio available
A young friend expressed her dismay about what she had seen and read in the media since the release of the final Zondo Commission report. With the recent avalanche of bad news about rising food- and petrol prices, and interest rate costs, the commission had given her some hope. However, the responses she had heard and read in our media made her feel that hope was in vain, or even naïve.
CONNECTING THE DOTS
2022-05-05 5291 views audio available
Steve Jobs famously said that one can only connect the dots backwards. We connect the dots on government’s economic policy since 2018. The dots tell us what has been done, not what will be done nor what has been promised. They help us to distinguish between daily headlines and longer-term trends.
Ukraine - The Second Iron Curtain
2022-03-07 2239 views audio available
This coming Saturday marks exactly 76 years since Winston Churchill made his ‘iron curtain’ speech. On 5 March 1946, visiting Fulton in Missouri as a guest of President Harry Truman, he famously said ‘… from Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic, an iron curtain has descended across Europe.’
SONA – BUT CAN WE IMPLEMENT?
2022-02-17 1866 views audio available
As far as the economy goes, last week’s State of the Nation address (SONA) dealt primarily with structural reform in sectors like electricity, spectrum, transport and infrastructure. But even the sceptics who supported the announcement asked: it’s all very well, but will it be implemented?
Life beyond load-shedding
2021-12-10 2633 views audio available
Electricity is the biggest single constraint on the South African economy. It also demoralises citizens and saps the energy of individuals and corporates, big and small alike. Load-shedding, fights about coal, the odours hanging over Karpowership, the bickering among some ministers and with Eskom management are all destabilising, leaving South Africans perplexed and frustrated. All this noise obscures a different trend line that has been taking shape over the past few years.
Election results
2021-11-04 2046 views audio available
The biggest vote in the election was the stayaway vote. Some 26 million people were registered, but only about 46% chose to go out and vote. This is as powerful a political statement as you can get. Fikile Mbalula, Head of Elections for the African National Congress (ANC), appropriately described it as ‘a warning shot’ for the ruling party. Many South Africans chose not to vote against the ANC; instead, they withheld their vote from it.
Local government elections - what to watch for
2021-10-08 1211 views audio available
Pity the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC). They have about 30 days to prepare, print and distribute ballot papers for more than 60 000 candidates vying to capture one of the more than 9 000 councillors posts up for election. Those ballots must get to more than 20 000 voting districts in 257 municipalities across the country. The local government elections on 1 November is no small logistical endeavour.
It is not the Criminal, it is the Civil
2021-08-17 618 views audio available
After a week during which both Jacob Zuma’s and Ace Magashule’s criminal trials were postponed again, many South Africans are wondering when they will see people in orange overalls. That is fair. But while the wheels of criminal justice turn slowly, it doesn’t mean there are no consequences for wrongdoing. Civil proceedings have already had quite an impact.
The Centre is holding
2021-07-19 3558 views audio available
‘It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope…’ These opening lines of Charles Dickens’ A Tale of Two Cities could have been written to describe the past three weeks in South Africa.
Part 1: Expropriation without compensation (EWC)
2021-06-17 1991 views audio available
This is pursued through two distinct processes: an amendment to Section 25 of the Constitution, and the new Expropriation Bill to replace the Act of 1975, which has been in the making for a couple of years.
Part 2: President Ramaphosa’s political position
2021-06-17 1511 views audio available
It has now subsided a bit, but a burning question was whether Pres. Ramaphosa will get a second term in 2022. Yes, he will. His position in the party is unassailable. He has outwitted every single opponent: Zuma, Magashule, Mahumapelo, Gumede… The erstwhile “premier league” is in tatters.
Part 3: Municipalities and local government
2021-06-17 1366 views audio available
It’s a mess. Of the 278 local authorities in SA 163 of the 278 are in financial distress and 40 are in serious financial and service delivery crisis. In a display of wishful thinking, 102 have adopted budgets they cannot fund.
Part 4: Fiscal cliff and debt burden
2021-06-17 1070 views audio available
The most-asked question in this regard is what will happen to civil service pay increases. It is useful to remember that in 2020 NO increases were granted to civil servants. This decision was challenged by the unions in court, which ruled in favour of the government. It is now under appeal to the Constitutional Court and we will have to await, and abide by, its ruling.
Part 5: Energy
2021-06-17 1100 views audio available
In the 20 months since October 2019 I have written about energy five times. Since government’s long-term plans with both Eskom and the energy market were announced in 2019, it was clear where we were going. The recent announcements about 100MW private generation has given huge traction to these plans.
First the State, Now the Party
2021-05-12 2125 views audio available
In the corruption update in August last year, I wrote: ‘One must distinguish between what the state is doing and what the ANC is doing or not doing. President Ramaphosa has clearly put the state on a new trajectory. It is important that the ANC now follows suit.’ Nine months later, in the past week, this is exactly what happened.
Structural Reform: Slow but Steady
2021-04-29 589 views
South Africa has now been in a ‘demographic recession’ for six years because the population grew faster than the economy. Our population growth is 1,6% pa (allowing for one immigrant every 2,5 minutes). Since 2015, economic growth has not kept pace with that number. The latest figures from the South African Reserve Bank show that by the end of 2020, per capita incomes were 11% lower in constant terms than at the end of 2014 – a six-year lag.
Budget 2021
2021-02-25 263 views audio available
It is useful to start with what was expected by many commentators, but then did not actually materialise in the budget. As a direct result of all the things that did not happen, the budget does provide a clear road back to fiscal sustainability. The numbers are still horrible, but the way out is clear.
Covid-19 Vaccine Supply
2021-01-21 2073 views audio available
A proverbial storm has developed around South Africa's procurement, or the perceived lack thereof, of Covid-19 vaccines. People are understandably anxious and have many questions. I therefore compiled this note from publicly available information, and trust readers find it useful.
2020 - What a year
2020-12-15 738 views audio available
Covid-19 naturally stands out as THE development of the year. It dealt South Africa the most serious economic blow since the 1920s. Two million people lost their jobs. Many small (and some big) business had to close doors. In general terms, it worsened South Africa’s triple curse of poverty, inequality and unemployment.
WYSIATI /'VE-SI-HA-TI/
2020-11-05 442 views audio available
In October there were three important political announcements about the economy: the Expropriation Bill, the Post-Covid-19 Recovery Plan and the mid-term Budget. When combined, they paint quite a picture of where we are going.
Energy: what has changed
2020-09-30 330 views
A mountain of debt and load shedding. These are the two things at Eskom that concern South Africans’ most. In March we wrote about energy and Eskom in great detail, so what has changed since then?
Corruption
2020-08-14 7659 views
There is palpable anger in the land about corruption. The anger is largely focused on what the ANC is doing and failing to do about the scourge. If we separate party and state, it is useful to look at the scoreboard of what the state has achieved so far in fighting corruption.
The one thing that matters
2020-07-21 432 views
In a time of intense contestation on the correct economic policy for South Africa, economists from the left, right and centre all agree on one thing: productivity matters. As left of centre and self-proclaimed progressive Paul Krugman put it: ‘Productivity is not everything, but in the long run it is almost everything.’ (He won the Nobel prize for economics.)
Be careful what you wish for
2020-06-22 1134 views
A huge amount of false hope was generated last week when the Constitutional Court ruled that the Electoral Act must be amended to allow independents to stand in elections. Various lobby groups and commentators were excited by the prospect that constituencies will now be introduced in South Africa and that parliamentarians will then be held more accountable. This is vastly premature. Even a cursory reading of the judgement makes it clear that this is not necessarily the case.
More than just Covid-19
2020-05-22 2732 views
Millions of words and trillions of pixels have been published on Covid-19. I cannot possibly add value to that, so in this note we will focus on other things crowded out by the virus.
Covid-19, The Economy and Politics
2020-04-23 497 views
The new coronavirus has knocked the stuffing out of the world’s economy. South Africa was in a recession even before the virus struck. Then came the (final) credit rating downgrades in March and April, and then the global lockdown. South Africa’s economy is now expected to contract somewhere between 6% and 8% in 2020. Whatever the number, contraction means that unemployment goes up, poverty increases, inequality worsens, human development is undermined, and social cohesion frays. How do we deal with this?
Land Expropriation Without Compensation
2020-02-03 2032 views
Changing the Constitution to allow for expropriation without compensation has certainly ignited South African politics for 2020. It is worthwhile cutting through the noise.
Hiding your light under a bushel
2020-01-14 2155 views
From a news flow and publicity point of view, an extraordinary thing happened in December 2019. The last cabinet meeting of the year was on Friday 13 December. That was also the week of stage 6 load shedding and when the president said there will be no load shedding before 13 January 2020. The normal post-cabinet news conference, where (some) details are given of what cabinet discussed, took place on Tuesday 17 December. At that news conference the only news on Eskom was that the cabinet had asked if André de Ruyter could start earlier than 15 January. (He started on Christmas day with visits to Eskom power stations.) I read the news in disbelief. Was that the best cabinet could come up with, given stage 6 load shedding?
It's investment and confidence, stupid
2019-12-12 1395 views
With negative economic growth in the third quarter, load shedding, mines not sending workers underground, and storms demolishing whole settlements while others cry out for rain, we are ending the year on a low note.
NHI
2019-10-14 1672 views
The tabling of the National Health Insurance (NHI) Bill in Parliament during August has generated a fair amount of hysteria – most of it not connected to what the Bill actually said. Some clarity on what the Bill says and does not say, can be useful.
Act 1: Reclaim the state
2019-08-12 6293 views
“Just do something” is the cry now rising from all over SA, a plea to the President and government in general to take some action to break the logjam in which the country finds itself. Confidence is low, growth sluggish and emigration high. It is useful to recapture what has been done.
Faction fights on three fronts
2019-06-12 908 views
Last week’s conflagration on the SA Reserve Bank’s mandate threw into sharp relief the faction fights in the ANC. Currently they are being fought on three fronts: the SA Reserve Bank; land expropriation without compensation; and the Public Protector’s actions.
Reset button pressed
2019-05-13 1375 views
The election result is a good result for SA. The main parties have been rebuked for their past behaviour, yet political stability was not threatened. Displeasure was registered, but also a mandate given. The angry red berets got their full say, but the centre held. All and all, a good outcome.
From awareness to orange overalls
2019-04-11 1832 views
At a panel discussion in Stellenbosch recently, veteran prosecutor Gerrie Nel had a sobering reflection on the possibility of prosecutions following the reports of corruption surfacing almost daily. It is one thing to be aware of wrongdoing, he said, but something very different to secure a conviction in a criminal court. If anybody should know, it is Nel. Being indignant and outraged is one thing, having a solid legal case is something else.
Exploding myths, giving direction
2019-02-12 1000 views
Pres. Ramapahosa’s second State of the Nation address last week exploded several myths and shone some light on his approach to government.
Two done, one to go
2018-12-13 2813 views
A year ago, Cyril Ramaphosa was elected President of the ANC by 52% vs 48%. As analysed here previously, Ramaphosa is now standing much stronger than 52/48. It is not 100% to zero, as the nominations in some provinces for Jacob Zuma to go to Parliament indicate; but it is also no longer 52/48. So, we can argue whether it is 60/40 or 70/30, but it is beyond argument that he is much stronger this December than last December.
From political support to business confidence
2018-11-06 642 views
One of several challenges the Ramaphosa administration faces is how to convert the president’s political capital and support into business confidence. The numbers speak for themselves.
Voters versus investors
2018-08-08 874 views
The announcement on 31 July by President Ramaphosa that the ANC will support a change in the Constitution regarding expropriation of land without compensation was truly dramatic. It will be the first change to the Constitution’s Bill of Rights since its adoption. (The Constitution itself has been changed 17 times.)
How strong Ramaphosa
2018-07-10 861 views
Over the last month or two the narrative has changed considerably – from Ramaphoria to Rama-failure. The sense is that Ramaphosa is stuck and with him SA. Weak business conditions and poor growth numbers obviously contribute to this narrative. There is nothing as bullish for a businessman as a full order book and nothing as bearish as no customers.
One year ago
2018-06-12 876 views
Winston Churchill famously said ‘the farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.' Let's take a break from all the political noise around us, look back over the last year and see what we can learn about the country.
Ramaphosa's New Dawn
2018-05-16 1023 views
Cyril Ramaphosa was elected president of SA on Thursday 15 February and delivered his first state of the nation speech (SONA) on 16 February where de declared “a new dawn”. How much of that new dawn is so far visible?
Into the quagmire and now trying to get out
2018-04-10 715 views
During 2017 a deeply rooted and emotive SA issue, land dispossession and ownership, was conflated with factional fighting in the ANC. It did not achieve the aims of the faction who started it, but it left the country with profound uncertainty on a critical policy.
The big land debate
2018-03-13 1014 views
Starting in the mid-eighteenth century, Scotland’s peasant farming families were systematically and forcibly evicted from their land. Their cottages were burnt and the families resettled in ‘coastal crofts’ (small tenant farms). The “Highland clearances” occurred in phases and lasted almost a century. The result is one of the most unequal land ownership countries in the world. Some estimates are that today 432 families own half the private land in Scotland, and just over 1200 owners hold over two thirds.
Cabinet reshuffle
2018-02-27 717 views
All in all it is a very mixed bag: some good appointments; some rewards to staunch supporters and some reaching out to opponents, both in the best tradition of politics; and some unpleasant retentions.
The mechanics of getting rid of Zuma
2018-02-13 1108 views
The ANC has at last taken the political decision to get rid of Jacob Zuma. This has taken a long time. The decision that he is recalled was delivered to him this morning; ironically by two of his staunchest erstwhile allies, Ace Magashule and Jessie Duarte. It must have been a case of swallowing bitter pills all round.
"End of an error"
2017-12-18 1093 views
That is the caption on a picture of Jacob Zuma which circulated widely on Whatsapp as the results became known. It is an apt summary. It is certainly the beginning of the end of a long nightmare. There is no doubt that the eventual replacement of Zuma by Ramaphosa as head of the government is a big change for the better. The country has taken a step forward – at least now muddling through will happen with a better captain at the helm.
Crunch time
2017-12-07 662 views
In ten days’ time the result should be known – who will be the new president of the ANC? The party’s elective conference starts on 16 December at NASREC in Johannesburg, where a new leadership will be elected.
Struggling to quorate and 33 days to go
2017-11-13 498 views
First the deadline was the end of October; then it was moved to 15 November; now some ANC members are asking for 19 November. These are the deadlines set by the ANC for when the organisation’s branches country-wide must have concluded their Branch General Meetings.
Zuma spy tapes decision
2017-10-16 585 views
Eight and a half years after the first application was brought to court, the Supreme Court of Appeal on Friday finally ruled that the decision to withdraw the charges against Mr Zuma in April 2009 was invalid. Over the eight and a half years there were numerous cases, cases within cases, appeals and counter appeals in this on-going saga.
Motion of no confidence
2017-08-08 638 views
As we expected, the motion of no confidence did not succeed despite it being held in secret. The secrecy clearly did not alter the balance of power significantly. But let’s first crunch the numbers.
ANC Policy Conference
2017-07-11 548 views
On policy, the outcome can be summarised in one sentence: it was not as bad as some feared (and others hoped); and not nearly as clear and decisive as the country’s needs. One is thus left with on-going uncertainty whilst the economic fundamentals continue to weaken.
No growth and no-go leaders
2017-06-12 636 views
The political-economic scene is dominated by poor growth numbers; the Zille and Zuma conflict in the DA and ANC respectively; two reports on state capture, one by the churches and one by academics; and the water torture of dripping emails from the Guptas.
A big change, not for the better
2017-05-11 240 views
Before SA was downgraded to sub-investment grade in April, a fundamental change had already occurred in SA's financial relationship with the world. That relationship is succinctly captured by the country's current account balance (CAB). This measure reflects whether SA sells more to the rest of the world than it imports. In SA the CAB has historically mostly been in deficit, but the change is that the deficit has decreased substantially over last four years.
Deeper into the morass
2017-04-10 898 views
Before we talk political economy, let's first go technical and unpack the S&P and Fitch downgrades.
How many divisions does the Pope have?
2017-04-03 765 views
Last week’s cabinet reshuffle protected proven incompetence, punished excellence, weakened a key institution in society and undermined the development of SA. There is simply nothing good to be said about it. It was also the fifth attack on the Treasury since Dec 2015. This time it succeeded. Or has it?
Land expropriation and compensation
2017-03-13 1168 views
The past five weeks saw interesting pronouncements on land in SA. Will it lead to a change in the Constitution? First, as it happened.
Many words, little new
2017-02-10 652 views
Ignoring the shenanigans that delayed the State of the Nation speech for more than an hour and focusing on the content of the speech itself, it can be summarised in one phrase: a damp squib. We were told beforehand that the President would announce a programme of “radical economic transformation”, particularly on land. What he did present was largely a repeat of previously announced programmes.
2016 – The year of the push back
2016-12-19 520 views
2016 was simply a tumultuous political year: internationally Brexit and Trump; locally an enormous push back against excesses by politicians. Over the last 12 months we have seen five strong push backs in SA
Stalemate, slipping, but no knockout… yet
2016-11-09 535 views
I am almost too scared to write this political commentary, because things are moving so fast! Just reflect on all the developments since summons was served on Mr Gordhan on 11 October to appear in court on 2 November, and what things actually looked like by 2 November! The galvanising effect of the summons; the outpouring of support for Mr Gordhan from right across the political and civil society spectrum; the humiliating climb-down the NPA was forced into.
From hope to despair… and back again
2016-09-12 697 views
"South Africa is a country where you hope on Monday and despair on Tuesday," Alan Paton said in 1985. That was still true in August 2016. The elections at the beginning of August inspired some “Monday hope”. They were a resounding success: overwhelmingly peaceful, well organised, real change affected, results accepted by the losers. These successes were all the more impressive for the dire predictions that preceded them: there would be violence, it would not be free and fair, losers would not accept the result…none of that materialised.
Election results
2016-08-08 306 views
The poll percentage in this election was remarkably similar to that of the previous local government elections in 2011 (57.72% against 57.64%); but as is now well known, the voters delivered a very different result.
Contradictions galore
2016-05-13 306 views
The developments and contradictions of the past month are too many to keep in one’s head.
The Nkandla judgement
2016-03-31 290 views
In a well-reasoned judgement, written by Chief Justice Mogoeng and concurred to by all ten other judges, the Constitutional Court today ruled, amongst several rulings, that the President acted inconsistently with his duties under the Constitution when he did not comply with the Public Protector’s finding to pay for the reasonable costs of non-security related improvements to his homestead at Nkandla. These improvements refer to the infamous “fire pool”, amphitheatre, visitors’ centre, cattle kraal and chicken run.
State of the Nation 2016
2016-02-12 281 views
Herewith a brief summary of the 2016 State of the Nation speech by Pres Zuma in the order the issues were raised in the speech.
Three loud, one quiet
2015-11-11 357 views
October saw some major developments – three were high profile and very public, one low profile and almost not noted. The high profiles ones were students protesting with #Feesmustfall; the mid-term budget statement and thirdly the on-going narrative that SA is facing fiscal collapse and a debt crisis. We can call the latter the #Fiscalcollapse narrative. The low profile development was the release of the Development Indicators for 2014. In contrast to the other three, it got comparatively little airtime in the media.
Talk it and then walk it
2015-02-26 302 views
How does this budget actually compare with the budget framework the minister tabled 4 months ago in October 2014? Did the minister now walk what he talked then?
Just plain wrong
2015-02-19 324 views
The behaviour of virtually everybody in Parliament during the State of the Nation speech was just plain wrong.
Looking at others to understand ourselves better
2015-02-19 321 views
What must South Africans make of the Eskom debacle, service delivery protests, the seemingly never-ending e-toll dispute and the infighting at SARS and the SAPS/Hawks? Is it all just because of one man, Jacob Zuma, or is there more than that going on?
Sustainability and the EFF
2014-10-23 484 views
In the Northern Cape the EFF provincial leadership has resigned from the party and gone back to the ANC.
August, radical econ transformation
2014-08-18 479 views
The phrase "radical economic transformation" entered the ANC`s lexicon with the release of its election manifesto. It was not defined or described and the precise context was: “The developmental mandate of state-owned enterprises, development finance institutions (DFIs) and other public agencies will be re-aligned to support radical economic transformation.” (our emphasis). That was it.
Elections – looks normal, but some significant shifts
2014-05-14 357 views
At the time of writing 95% of voting stations have reported and 17 million votes counted. The ANC was at 62.5% of the vote, the DA at 22% and the EFF at 6% - taking between them 90% of the vote. It looks like 10 parties will share the remaining 10%.
Elections .... Slow shuffle to the middle?
2014-03-11 419 views
The State of the Nation speech was middle of the road and noticeable for what it did not say; the Budget was non-populist; could the May elections continue the trend? Let’s start with the numbers.
Filling the Gap on the Left
2013-09-09 523 views
The term of this Parliament expires on 13 April 2014. A new election has to be held within 90 days of that date, meaning before the middle of July 2014. Traditionally, however, elections in mid-winter are not popular. So the election will probably be held around late April/May in 2014. About 8 months from now. The elections are already a talking point.
The year that was
2012-12-11 485 views
Looking back over 2012 it is clear that the second half of the year was bad, very bad
SA not in decline
2012-11-09 674 views
The current narrative on South Africa is one of decline. The mining strikes of the last two and a half months, and the accompanying violence, set off many doomsday predictions.
The 6Ms and our national mood
2012-10-10 450 views
The currency is pummelled, the national mood is sombre and uncertainty hangs over all. This is the result of several forces all playing out at the same time. Let ‘s call them the 6 Ms.
Living With Ambiguity
2012-07-03 473 views
The overwhelming observation from the ANC Policy Conference in Midrand is that there is more clarity on some vital issues, but simultaneously more questions about others. Investors will not like the ambiguity that brings.
E-tolling - the winners and the losers.
2012-05-08 485 views
The e-toll saga must rank as one of the more significant political developments so far in 2012.
Open Society Dynamics At Work
2011-07-11 360 views
“Open society, open economy, sound money (i.e. low inflation)”.
The fight is in the middle
2011-06-08 329 views
We discussed the May local govt election results in a special note we published two weeks ago. On further reflection, I want to add another perspective.
May, Election Review
2011-05-25 408 views
"Steven Friedman put it succinctly: “South Africans vote their identities”. Did they do so in this election?"